23 CommentsMetablogging / By Scamp /

How it will all end

Now that I’ve had time to sit back and watch the aniblog tourney play out to a certain degree, I feel I can make some reasonable predictions on how this will pan out. First, there’s the issue of how many people will show up, which I shall now demonstrate using this poorly drawn graph.

There’s the original burst in hits as the tourney hits the scene, followed by a sharp drop as those who never really had much interest in the tourney in the first place stop visiting. The core audience of the tourney will make up most of the hits, mainly consisting of bloggers and those who read anime blogs on a regular enough basis to already be fairly in tune with anime blogs in general. There will also be a few people who show up randomly but these will make up a small percentage of the people visiting. Also, these people might be slightly put off by the number of blogs present along with the lower quality of those blogs on display. Hence the extra hits these blogs are getting are mainly coming from those inside the sphere already. An echo-chamber, circle wank, whatever you want to call it, is what’s happening. Not that the other blogs competing in the first round aren’t getting readers from outside the sphere. The tourney has gotten hits from places well outside the sphere, but it’s mainly an echo-chamber.

However the important thing here is that (sorry if I hurt some feelings here) the tourney is genuinely voting forward the better blogs. Not those that are most known inside the sphere or those with big reputations, but on the genuine quality of the blogs in question. Many will point to the fact that it’s mainly been on first impressions, which I’ll get to later. With the second round beginning and the bigger name blogs competing, more people will start showing up because of how interesting the match ups are. It’s already clear that the more interesting the match up on that week is, the more people pay attention. The Colony Drop post is tribute to that, which is why I kinda want them to win. A lot of these people aren’t actually visiting the sites in question or even voting in the other poll, but enough are for it to make a difference. And again, the genuinely good blogs should continue to advance. Case point here would be Mecha-Guignol, a relatively unknown blogger whose popularity has suddenly increased thanks to the tourney. Just look at how much more comments he’s got on his latest post compared to the older ones. Ah, I remember when there was only about 5 people who ever commented on that blog~

The important point here is that the randomers visiting the tourney will now be faced with rounds with genuinely good blogs competing. Better yet, a lot of these blogs have been voted up on first impressions, which means the randomers with the typical Internet interest span of maybe 20 seconds will be impressed quickly. And they will too start to visit these blogs and become readers. And this shall continue as the rounds progress. More people will start to follow the tourney as the rounds progress because the quality of the blogs on display will also increase. What people tend to forget is how few people actively search out anime blogs to read. Those who follow none will start to read those who ranked in the semis and the final. Those who only read the big ones will start to follow some of the other high quality ones that have progressed further. Basically, if you’re someone reading this post and feel rather overwhelmed by the tourney, it might be better to wait for some of the later rounds.

I said it on the opening post. This tourney is to promote good blogs who aren’t maybe getting the attention they deserve. So far, people are voting up the blogs they genuinely think are better. The only problem I can see thus far is that blogs that may appeal to a specific audience are losing out, which is just something that is an inherent flaw with democracy anyway. I personally like to err on the side of originality when voting in the tourney (for example, I voted both Colony Drop and Anime Instrumentality because they both cover things almost no other blogs do). I really hope people do continue to vote for the actual blogs themselves and not based on friendships, random twitter campaigns or reputation that they were once a good blogger.

As for the question people really care about; who is going to win the thing, I’ve noticed a certain tendency to vote against episodic blogs, although pretty much all the big guns in the episodic blogging world got byes in the first round. Those thinking Random Curiosity will steamroll the thing are totally underestimating the backlash people will have to these types of blogs. I am a betting man though, so my guess would be for Sea Slugs to win the whole thing (they’re number one seed for a reason). I think it largely depends on how good the most recent posts are on the editorial blogs are when they are featured. What do you guys think?

::Note:: this is the optimistic view. The pessimistic view is that almost everyone stops caring after the first round and it becomes a total circle jerk between a select few

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21 Comments

  1. Posted April 26, 2010 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    My bet is on Psgels.

  2. Posted April 26, 2010 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    I hope the optimistic view happens. If the pessimistic occurs, it will be no fun.

    Editorials ftw!

  3. Posted April 26, 2010 at 11:18 pm | Permalink

    I want to pull for 2DT to go all the way to the finals, but he’ll have to go through Sea Slugs first. It’d be an interesting matchup for sure.

  4. Posted April 27, 2010 at 12:32 am | Permalink

    I’m enjoying the tourney. If I may be forgiven the strange comparison: it is kind of like one of those read the Bible in a year plans. Someone might think it would be interesting to have read the whole thing, but it looks so intimidating, when you think of reading the whole thing. But the tourney structures the reading, so that I only have to read at most 4 new blogs a day to explore quite a wide variety of blogs. Then I keep reading only the ones I liked.

    Prior to this my reading was driven exclusively by blogs that discussed series I was watching at the time. As a result, the tourney is giving me a manageable way to expand my familiarity with the ani-blogosphere.

  5. Posted April 27, 2010 at 1:19 am | Permalink

    If enough of RC’s readers know it is in the tournament, I think RC will win comfortably. Still, getting the voters out is important!

  6. Posted April 27, 2010 at 4:09 am | Permalink

    Well, episodic blogs have to contend with the fact that they all cover the exact same content and generally read similarly too. Looking at the same “Maid-sama ep 3” post gets tiring real soon.

    But if any of the top seed “mobilize their base”, they’ll buzzsaw through the brackets.

  7. Posted April 27, 2010 at 5:14 am | Permalink

    I’m inclined to agree that should the top seeds leverage their popularity, the contest will slide into a zone of predictability with really no upsets to look out for.

    For what it’s worth, I’m just glad to be able to discover new stuff to add to ye olde feedreader. I came in expecting to find 2-3 new blogs but have come out with more than that. If nothing else, that’s a success in terms of getting me new reading material.

  8. Posted April 27, 2010 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    For what it’s worth, I’m just glad to be able to dis­cover new stuff to add to ye olde feedreader. I came in expect­ing to find 2–3 new blogs but have come out with more than that. If noth­ing else, that’s a suc­cess in terms of get­ting me new read­ing material.

    This.

    I can’t tell you how many blogs that I came across as we were creating the list of 96 where I thought, “hey I remember this blog, why am I not following it?” or “geez, I never knew this blog existed, but they’ve got good stuff”.

    The blog tourney isn’t big enough where a blog is suddenly going to go from nobody to American Idol, but if each contest brings about a few new readers/commenters to each blog, its reach will hopefully cascade from there, and really good things can happen.

  9. Posted April 27, 2010 at 11:57 am | Permalink

    I’ve been enjoying discovering blogs I hadn’t heard of before – my reader has grown significantly since the start of the tourney.

    I’ve also noticed an increase in traffic to my own blog, which is most welcome (as is the feedback……still trying to work out how to incorporate that though :P )

  10. Posted April 27, 2010 at 1:38 pm | Permalink

    I’m rooting on 2DT

    The backlash against episodics does a good job of countering the fact episodics simply have bigger fanbases, whereas it’s very difficult to attract hits with editorials and other in-depth posts; I think it’s quite fair.

    @”I really hope people do continue to vote for the actual blogs themselves and not based on friendships, random twitter campaigns or reputation that they were once a good blogger.”
    Just like design/content/style, the blogger is part of the blog, so I think it’s fairgained to make decisions based on what you think of the blogger: especially when it comes to open/close-minded-ness and promotion/bashing.

  11. Scamp
    Posted April 27, 2010 at 2:50 pm | Permalink

    huh, my first two commenters are fellow staff members on the tourney~

    If you’re finding a handful of new blogs to read then hurrah~ the tourney is a success, at least for you it is.

    As for the big seeds mobelising their fanbase, we’ll have to wait and see if that happens. I’ve seen it happen twice so far in the tourney. Hanners got a chunk of extra votes but he was winning the tie anyway. Plus this number wasn’t actually a massive amount even though he made a post about it. The other was Colony Drop and that’s resulted in as many votes against it. Who’s to bet someone will form anti-episodic petitions.

    Strangely I don’t think I’ve added any new blogs to my reader. The main reason for this is probably because I set this up. If I didn’t know a blog existed then they’re probably not in this tourney

    Also if 2DT gets by Tenka Seiha he should come across Ogiue Maniax and in that match up I want OM to win. So screw you guys, Ogiue Maniax FTW!

  12. Posted April 27, 2010 at 6:20 pm | Permalink

    My match against Colony Drop has the total vote of almost 400!
    That’s really nice because lots of people also came across my blog in the last few days. If this trend keeps on going, I think we are in the win-win situation here :)

  13. Posted April 27, 2010 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    I don’t really think the tourny as you’ve set up in bracket form, at the end, is any causal indicator of who is the ‘best’. If you mixed up the pairings, would it have turned the same? Many of these blogs seem like apples and oranges; something that Ryan commented, that it should be broken down into categories. I wouldn’t read 2DT over Hanners since they’re two totally different things, etc. It’s a good PR machine though.

  14. Posted April 28, 2010 at 12:30 am | Permalink

    It’s cause we love you Scamp. :)

  15. Posted April 28, 2010 at 4:31 am | Permalink

    The second round is where things are gonna get down.

    Can’t wait for all the big guns to bare knuckles.

  16. Posted April 28, 2010 at 4:37 am | Permalink

    “I said it on the open ing post. This tourney is to promote good blogs who aren’t maybe get ting the atten tion they deserve.”

    It’s certainly exposed me to several other good blogs that I never really followed too closely.

    Someone mentioned something about the big seeds mobilizing their base (Random C, Seaslugs… etc.). If they do, the goal of promoting good blogs become even more concrete. The vast majority of anime watchers rarely follow other blogs beside the biggest names. They read the blogs that rank high on google. If this can get even a percentage of anime fans to start reading blogs that rarely gets traffic from outside the blogosphere, that’d be fantastic.

  17. Poro
    Posted April 29, 2010 at 3:51 am | Permalink

    RAMBLINGS OF DARKMIRAGE FTW!! oh wait not on the list…. fail.

  18. Scamp
    Posted April 29, 2010 at 10:54 am | Permalink

    @Canne

    That Colony Drop match of yours has been interesting to say the least. But hey, at least people are visiting the blogs in quesiton

    @lelangir

    Actually I think Ryan said specifically not to break down into categories but eh, it’s too late for that now either way. Besides, comparing one episodic to another is boring. Comparing Hanners to 2DT is interesting. At least, that’s how I see it.

    @Yi

    There’s certainly an element of truth in that. Sea Slugs, THAT and Kuorgane have all made posts about the tourney and have gotten somewhere in the realm of 200-400 hits from them. Now lets say some other people start ‘anti-episodic’ tirades, which is happening to a small extent on the tourney anyway, we might see something interesting happen.

    @Poro

    He’s made like, 2 posts this year.

  19. Posted April 30, 2010 at 1:09 pm | Permalink

    –I think it largely depends on how good the most recent posts are on the editorial blogs when they are featured.–

    This is an interesting point. Every blogger in the tourney is very aware of this fact. The growing audience for the tournament will put increasing pressure on the participating blogs to write more and better. I’m already excited for the future posts we’ll be seeing.

  20. Kitsune
    Posted May 1, 2010 at 2:46 pm | Permalink

    You mentioned several times “genuinely good blogs”. What is a genuinely good blog?

    I find it interesting that you mention quality, given the main criterion outlined in one of the first posts: “The criteria on which you should decide the winner is which would you prefer to read. If you could only read one or the other, which would it be.” A blog might be high-quality, whatever your definition is, but you might not want to read this blog because it is not relevant to your interests.

    Nevertheless, the tournament itself does achieve it’s main purpose: exposure of anime blogs.

  21. Scamp
    Posted May 2, 2010 at 8:40 pm | Permalink

    @Pietel

    I think we might see it far more in round 2 as people start to hope to gain that extra edge over their competition while in Round 1 many people were just waiting to see what happens

    @Kitsune

    What I meant by that is that people aren’t voting based off friendships and reputation, well, most people aren’t, but on the actual design and writing capabilities.

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